Toncoin could make a strong breakthrough: A potential price pattern is forming

Toncoin (TON) may be on the verge of a strong breakout, based on the price action model that has formed over the past few months. In fact, some analysts believe that this breakout could bring a rise of up to 40% or even higher.

The wedge pattern of Toncoin: A sign of a strong rise

The forecast for this breakout is based on the wedge pattern of Toncoin, which has formed over the past 5 months. This pattern is formed based on the gradually decreasing support levels and the gradually increasing resistance levels, creating a wedge shape.

Interestingly, the predictions for the price breakout are made in the context of Toncoin finishing May with a strong push into a narrow range. Additionally, the recent retest of Toncoin's gradually rising support level has remained stable, reducing selling pressure.

Source: TradingViewIn the past 24 hours, the price of Toncoin dropped below 3 USD at one point, but quickly bounced back and is currently trading at 3.12 USD after retesting the support level. The MFI index of this altcoin indicates a significant increase in inflow over the past 24 hours, contributing to the expectation of a recovery.

Does Toncoin have enough demand to break through?

The on-chain cash flow data of Toncoin shows a sharp decline in outflows compared to Friday, further confirming that selling pressure has eased. The shift in optimistic expectations is also clearly reflected in the futures market.

The futures contract of Toncoin recorded the largest rise in the past 3 months on Friday. This shows investor confidence, especially as the price continues to be pushed into a narrow range.

! Source: GlassnodeAlthough optimism is dominant, the rise in open contracts also indicates that the risk of liquidation is increasing if the price breaks the ascending support level. This scenario could lead to the collapse of the TON, especially as June sentiment may decline due to worries about economic instability.

The Fear and Greed Index of Toncoin is currently maintaining a neutral level of 49 at the time of writing, down 17 points in the past 24 hours. While this is a return to the average compared to the sentiment of the past week, it also indicates that a strong price drop may be approaching.

What do performance indicators reveal about the prospects of Toncoin?

Regarding network performance, Toncoin has witnessed a rise in trading volume on DEX exchanges in the last week of May. This coincides with the growth in the number of active holder addresses in May. The total number of holders has increased from 149,930 addresses to over 150,200 addresses in the past 4 weeks, according to data from IntoTheBlock.

Source: IntoTheBlockAdditionally, whales account for a large portion of the Toncoin supply, holding over 67% of the total circulating Toncoin. Historical holding addresses show that swing traders or short-term investors account for over 82.5% of the circulating coin, which confirms that they at least expect a price rise in the short to medium term, aligning with expectations of an increase of over 40%.

On the contrary, the increasing optimistic sentiment also carries risks. As more and more people expect a bullish scenario, they tend to aggressively enter leveraged positions, which could prompt whales to trigger liquidations by moving in the opposite direction.

With optimistic growth, there is a strong possibility that the price will be pushed down if sufficient demand is not attracted for the price increase. This could cause Toncoin to retest the next support level below 2.8 USD.

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