BTC Volatility Weekly Review ( April 28 - May 5 )

Key indicators ( April 28, 4 PM - May 5, 4 PM Hong Kong Time ) 94,700 dollars (, ETH against USD increases by 1.4% ) 1,800 dollars

This week, as the market stabilizes, the price of cryptocurrencies is fluctuating within a small range and has not reached the key resistance level of 99-100 thousand dollars. The support at 89-91 thousand dollars is currently maintaining the price within this range, but if this support level is broken, the price may significantly adjust down to 85 thousand dollars. With the end of several holidays last week, we expect to see the price being moved unilaterally - it may attempt to test 100 thousand dollars - but if it fails to break through, it may lead to an extended period of low volatility. We still maintain a bullish outlook on Bitcoin, expecting it to reach 115-125 thousand dollars in the coming months or quarters. Market Theme Because last week was mainly a holiday, the global market had another quiet week. The stock market continues to rise continuously. As Trump and Bason continue to push for a deal with China, as well as agreements with other countries or regions that are also "about to be announced" (but the market is already expecting this), the S&P recouped the gap since Trump Liberation Day in early April. The non-farm payrolls data was the main data of the week, with unexpectedly strong data quelling fears of an economic slowdown and supporting the rally in US stocks, while earnings data from several leading companies were also quite strong. Last week was a very quiet week as far as cryptocurrencies go. Bitcoin was largely unchanged for 7 days in a row, and although it briefly rose to $97.8 thousand on Friday night, it quickly retreated. MSTR is continuing to buy bitcoin (with a total value of $180 million last week) and announced another round of equity plans to continue buying bitcoin (as the first round of 2.1 billion equity has already been bought), but in general this wave of buying has been fully absorbed by the market. At the moment, this $92-96 thousand looks like an equilibrium price range for Bitcoin. Because we were here for a long time in February, and we were hovering here before the tariff news. Therefore, we expect a longer period of consolidation in the current range, unless there are significant external factors. BTC ATM implied volatility

Last week, implied volatility briefly increased on Monday due to the rising coin prices and then gradually decreased. The high-frequency realized volatility is locked in at just above 30, while the term structure is very steep (currently, the market prices a return to volatility levels in the 50s by the end of May to June), which means that it is very difficult to make money on any long positions at the far end of the term. We suspect that the market holds long positions due to selling pressure over the past few weeks and finds it hard to maintain them, which is why the short-term volatility has been compressed to this level. In the very short term, the market has not priced much for this week's Federal Reserve meeting (only pricing a 40 bps change). We expect to see relevant buyers appearing soon. BTC Skewness/Kurtosis

As the price briefly broke above $97,000 and there was a glimmer of a rise towards $99,000-$100,000, the skew was intensely biased upward. However, the coin price ultimately stalled and fell below $94,000 at the beginning of this week, pushing the skew price back to a lower level as the market recognized that the current coin price could move in either direction. Due to the sluggish actual volatility this week and the coin price remaining in a comfortable zone, selling pressure on both sides has increased, lowering the peak today. However, considering our currently low volatility, we believe that a breakout of the current range of $89,000-$99,000 will accelerate the rise. This will also be accompanied by a significant skew towards the corresponding side (meaning a breakout above $99,000 will skew upward, while a drop below $89,000 will skew downward). Wishing everyone good luck this week!