BTCVolatility Weekly Review (November 25th-December 2nd)

Key Metrics: (November 25th, 4:00 PM - December 2nd, 4:00 PM Hong Kong time) 95,900 USD), ETH pumped 6.7% against USD (3,410 Spot technical indicator overview: The price seems to have reached a local peak. Despite some well-known companies still making strong purchases, the pump trend has failed to continue. This is roughly consistent with our view, that the market has passed the main pump phase and is stabilizing here before the next Fluctuation. Our fundamental view is that any correction in the coin price will be relatively gentle. Considering the strong support below, we may experience a lower actual Volatility rate in the coming weeks. But if the price breaks through $100,000 or $90,000, there will be a greater Volatility in the market, so be cautious outside of this range. If the price breaks through $100,000, we will have the opportunity to reach $110,000-115,000 earlier than expected (before January-February next year), on the contrary, if the price falls below $90,000, $85,000 would be a reasonable support level, and further down the price may fluctuate dramatically to below $76,000. Market Themes: Last week was relatively quiet due to Thanksgiving. The S&P 500 index climbed to 6000, and the yield on US Treasuries continued to slowly decline from its high after Janet Yellen was confirmed as the next Treasury Secretary. BTC failed to break through the $100,000 mark again, triggering a drop to as low as $90,800, but found strong support at this level. It gradually rebounded to the middle of the range at $95,000-$96,000. Overall, with a large amount of MSTR's purchases being absorbed, the market is more balanced at its current levels. However, we continue to see impressive progress in other coins. The ETH ETF finally saw some nice inflows, leading to a brief breakthrough of Spot Ethereum against the US dollar (ETHUSD) to over $3,700. Meanwhile, Ripple (XRP) also pumped 50% this week. ATM Implied Volatility:

After a significant pullback to $90,800 and subsequent upward correction to $97,000, the price of the currency has shown signs of stability for the first time, putting downward pressure on both implied and actual volatility. Taking advantage of this opportunity, it is likely that many end-of-year positions have been cleared out, and the overall close all positions last week provided more selling pressure to the market. As we approach the end of the year and the holiday season, we expect implied volatility to face further downward pressure and naturally result in a steeper term structure. However, we find that the market has priced the volatility for the end of the year and January of next year quite extremely. If the price of the currency remains within a certain range during this period, it will be difficult to sustain this pricing. Skewness/Kurtosis:

Skewness has been downwardly adjusted, consistent with the Spot price pulling back from $99,800 to $90,800, but it was only a fleeting moment. With the strong support shown in the coin price, the skewness price has regained most of the decline for the remaining time this week. Overall, the kurtosis gradually decreased this week, consistent with lower Volatility levels, and also affected by the sustained selling pressure of the continued wing bullish price differential. The market seems to expect the coin price to pump at a slower pace from now on.

Wish everyone good luck in the coming week!