BTCVolatility Weekly Review (December 2nd - December 9th)

December 9th 4pm Hong Kong time) $99,600), ETH pumps 7.4% against USD ($3,640

Looking at the trend, the Spot market is still correcting the price. Although the price reached a new high above $100k, it quickly and heavily fell back. We believe that any pump will be followed by dumping, but there will also be a large market demand during the fall, so we expect to see a one-sided correction trend (gradual flattening of price movements). Currently, the resistance level is mainly between $99k-$104k, and the support level starts from $94k until it drops to $85k. Although the price will initially fluctuate within this range, we expect the actual volatility to decrease eventually (provided that the price does not break through). If the price falls below, we will be brought back to $76k. Any substantial breakthrough will lead to the price reaching the ultimate range of $115k-$120k earlier than expected (originally expected in January to February next year). Market Themes: BTC finally broke through the psychological barrier of $100 k last Thursday, triggering two attempts to reach $104 k, both of which received good support. At first, it felt like this level was the answer that the recent Bull Market trend urgently hoped to see, but the momentum quickly weakened in the next 24 hours, and we fell back below $100 k. This led to the liquidation of fresh long positions above $100 k, causing the price to drop, reaching as low as $90 k. However, it didn't last long, and the market reclaimed $100 k during the New York trading session, stabilizing in the $96-100 k range. As the overall market sentiment is still bullish, other currencies continue to rise. ETH also pushes up the price against USD, surpassing the psychological barrier of 4k USD, but still 20% away from its all-time high. The price Fluctuation in the TradFi market seems relatively calm. The implementation of martial law in South Korea briefly caused concern (and led to a temporary fall of BTC to 93k USD), but it was later confirmed to be only a local political turmoil and quickly subsided. China once again promised to provide stimulus policies next year in response to the overall market weakness after Trump's election and promise to impose new tariffs. Finally, the U.S. labor data continues to show signs of gradual weakening. Last week's non-farm employment report did not affect the Fed's gradual rate cuts. Therefore, overall, we continue to believe that the macro background supports risk assets. BTC ATM Implied Volatility:

Overall, the market experienced significant Fluctuation last week. First, due to the South Korean martial law, it dropped to 93 k US dollars, then broke through 100 k US dollars and approached 104 k US dollars, and then fell back due to liquidation, reaching a low of 90 k US dollars. Despite such large Fluctuation, the actual Volatility of high frequency is about 60 points, which is only the pricing of the market's average weekly implied Volatility rate for the first quarter of next year! Therefore, most of the surge in implied Volatility rate has subsided, especially before the expiration date at the end of the year. Unless the price range of 90-104 k US dollars is completely broken, it will be difficult for the actual Volatility rate to maintain at this level. However, in the far end of the term structure, the market saw significant buying flow, especially above the exercise price of 150-200 k US dollars for March and June expiration dates, leading to an increase in premiums after the January expiration date. Once again, it is emphasized that considering the high actual Fluctuation rate last week, which only maintained a weekly implied Fluctuation rate of 60 points, it will be difficult for the market to maintain such a high implied Fluctuation rate before the Spot price significantly breaks through. BTC Skewness/Kurtosis

Despite some significant pullbacks in the Spot market, the price trend remained relatively stable this week. The main demand in the market is still concentrated on the upside, with only a few demands for hedging on the downside in the short term. With the rise in actual Fluctuation rate, the kurtosis of the market overall pumped this week, also due to the demand for buying on the single wing side (especially the upside). Wish you all good luck in the coming week!