Early-stage crypto investors lose an average of 50% with locked tokens.

Investors holding locked tokens are facing an average loss of nearly 50% compared to the OTC trading valuation in May 2024, according to data released by Taran Sabharwal – the founder of STIX – on April 22.

Sabharwal said that if sold at the same time last year, many investors could have locked in profits at prices double the current ones. Shared data shows a severe decline in the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of many large tokens, including JITO, BERA, ZRO, WLD, TIA, IO, W, ZK, EIGEN, SCR, and BLAST, when comparing May 2024 to April 2025.

Among the tracked tokens, SCR and BLAST experienced the largest declines at -85% and -88%, respectively. EIGEN also dropped significantly by -75%, while ZK, W, IO, and TIA saw respective losses ranging from 44% to 64% compared to last year's locked OTC valuations.

JITO is the only exception, with a 75% increase compared to the same period, standing out in a generally weakening market of locked tokens.

Sabharwal noted that the discrepancy between OTC valuation and the current spot price is a clear testament to the risks involved in investing in locked positions, especially in early funding rounds. Although initial expectations are often placed on long-term potential, in the past 12 months, the market's strong volatility along with the internal factors of each project has caused actual performance to deviate significantly from projections.

During the same period, according to data from Artemis, 22 segments in the crypto market – including Bitcoin and Ethereum – recorded an average adjustment of 40.7%, which is still nearly 20% better than the group of locked tokens.

The data also shows that many early investors missed the opportunity to exit in the secondary market in 2024, as locked tokens are often associated with token release schedules or transfer limitations, preventing investors from being able to react flexibly when the market fluctuates.

Ultimately, Sabharwal's analysis reflects the general trend as new projects face greater pressure when entering the secondary market – which is much more stringent than during the initial fundraising period.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Investors should do thorough research before making decisions. We are not responsible for your investment decisions.

Thạch Sanh