Solana futures holdings hit a new high: Is the SOL price about to explode? In-depth analysis of the Bull vs Bear Battle in the market.

Written by: Lawrence

1. Market Status: SOL price has pulled back but support remains strong.

From April 29 to 30, the price of Solana (SOL) fell by 4%, failing to hold the key level of $150. However, the support level at $140 has not been broken for a consecutive week, which is the first time since mid-February, indicating that market sentiment remains relatively optimistic. As of the latest data, the SOL price is $148.37, and traders are closely watching whether it can break through the $200 barrier.

2. Futures Market Signals: Surge in Open Interest, Increasing Institutional Interest

Total open interest in Solana futures contracts SOL.

On April 30, the open interest of SOL futures surged to 40.5 million contracts (approximately $5.75 billion), a month-on-month increase of 5%, approaching historical peaks. This scale ranks third in the cryptocurrency derivatives market, far exceeding the 50% holdings of XRP futures. Such a massive open interest typically indicates that institutional investors are increasing their positions, significantly enhancing market liquidity.

However, an increase in open interest does not equate to a bullish signal. Since long and short positions in the futures market always match, an increase in open interest only represents heightened trading activity, not a unilateral bullish sentiment. To assess the true market sentiment, it is necessary to consider key indicators such as financing rates.

3. The financing rate reveals a bearish dominance, and the risk of short-term pullback still exists.

SOL perpetual futures 8-hour financing rate. Source: Laevitas.ch

Currently, the financing rate for SOL perpetual contracts is negative, indicating stronger demand for short positions. This phenomenon began on April 25, when SOL failed to break through the resistance at $156, leading to a cooling of market sentiment. In addition, SOL has accumulated a 43% increase from April 8 to 29, and some profit-taking may choose to short at high levels, resulting in weakened demand for leveraged long positions.

4. Is a $200 target realistic? Historical performance and ecological support.

Although the $200 target seems aggressive, SOL reached $195 in mid-February when the number of its decentralized applications (DApps) had decreased by 80% from the peak in January. This indicates that the price drivers of SOL rely not only on the DApp ecosystem but also on market liquidity and speculative demand.

The total value locked on the Solana network is (TVL) in USD. Source: DefiLlama

Despite being criticized for its reliance on memecoins, Solana's ecological value far exceeds the realm of speculation. According to DefiLlama data, the total value locked (TVL) in Solana has reached $9.5 billion, covering diverse areas such as liquid staking, lending protocols, and automated market makers (AMM). Additionally, leading DApps like Meteora, Pump.fun, and Juto have weekly transaction fee revenues exceeding $10 million, demonstrating strong profitability.

5. DEX trading volume surges, Solana challenges Ethereum's dominance

Since April 14, despite Ethereum's base layer transaction fees remaining below $0.65, the trading volume on Solana's decentralized exchanges (DEX) has increased by nearly 90%.

Decentralized exchange trading volume and 7-day market share. Source: DefiLlama

In the past week, the total trading volume of Solana DEX reached 21.6 billion USD, surpassing the overall performance of the Ethereum Layer-2 ecosystem. Among them:

Raydium trading volume increased by 87% week-on-week.

Meteora increased by 58%

This trend indicates that Solana has significant advantages in trading efficiency and costs, attracting a large number of users to migrate.

6. Potential Catalysts: Expectations for Solana Spot ETF Approval

From a policy perspective, SOL may迎来重大利好. The market generally expects that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve the Solana spot ETF before October 10, with analysts giving a probability of approval as high as 90%. If this comes true, a large inflow of institutional funds may drive SOL to break through its historical high.

In addition, the ongoing innovation within the Solana ecosystem (such as the Firedancer upgrade) and the increased appeal to retail investors provide fundamental support for price upward movement. Even if the demand for leveraged long positions is weak in the short term, SOL may still gradually rise due to improvements in on-chain data.

7. Technical Analysis: Key Resistance and Support Levels

Resistance levels: $156 (recent high), $170 (psychological barrier), $200 (long-term target)

Support Level: $140 (short-term strong support), $130 (mid-term defense line)

If SOL can hold above $150 and break through $156, the upward momentum will further strengthen; conversely, if it falls below $140, it may trigger a deeper correction.

8. Conclusion: Short-term fluctuations, long-term bullish outlook.

Overall, SOL is currently at a critical stage of a tug-of-war between bulls and bears:

Short term: The negative funding rate indicates that bears are dominant, and the price may continue to consolidate.

Mid-term: The growth of DEX trading volume, stable TVL, and ETF expectations form strong support;

Long-term: If it breaks through $200, SOL is expected to enter a new bull market cycle.

Investors need to closely monitor changes in financing rates, ETF progress, and the overall trend of Bitcoin to seize the best entry opportunities.