Bitcoin突破 99000 USD，市场都发生了什么？

The market is influenced by multiple factors such as The Federal Reserve (FED) policies, geopolitical conflicts, and institutional fund inflows, with ETF funds continuously flowing in, driving a rise in Crypto Assets.

Written by: Lawrence, Mars Finance

On May 8, 2025, Thursday — In the resonance of multiple macro and market variables, Bitcoin (BTC) broke through the $99,000 mark early this morning, with a 24-hour increase of 2.55%. Mainstream Crypto Assets such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) also rose simultaneously. This breakthrough comes just 5 months after Bitcoin first reached its historical high of $100,000 on December 5, 2024, while the current market is facing a complex situation of The Federal Reserve (FED) policies, geopolitical conflicts, institutional capital inflows, and short-selling battles.

1. Market Dynamics: ETF funds continue to flow in, Crypto Assets rise across the board

According to SoSoValue data, on May 7th Eastern Time, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net inflow of 142 million USD in a single day, with none of the 12 ETFs experiencing outflows.

Among them, ARK Invest's ARKB leads with a net inflow of $54.7263 million, followed closely by Fidelity's FBTC with $39.919 million. As of May 8, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs reached $112.712 billion, accounting for 5.86% of the total BTC market capitalization, with a historical cumulative net inflow exceeding $40.719 billion.

Meanwhile, the price of Bitcoin broke through 99,000 US dollars on May 8th in Beijing time, reaching a high of 99,500 US dollars, setting a new high since December 2024. Ethereum broke through 1,900 US dollars (24-hour rise of 4%), Solana (SOL) stood at 151 US dollars (rise of 3.3%), and the overall market showed a rising trend.

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2. Macroeconomic Variables: The Federal Reserve (FED) "remains on hold", interest rate cut expectations postponed.

On May 7, The Federal Reserve (FED) announced that it would maintain the target federal funds rate range at 4.25%-4.5%, in line with market expectations. Chairman Powell emphasized a "wait-and-see" stance during the press conference, stating that there is still uncertainty in current inflation and employment data, and that a rate cut requires more signals of economic weakness. Market predictions for the probability of a rate cut in July dropped from an earlier 65% to 57%, while the probability of maintaining the rate in June is as high as 80%.

Despite the hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve's decision, the market reacted relatively calmly. Analysts pointed out that this outcome has already been priced in, and investors are more focused on subsequent economic data and geopolitical risks. Powell mentioned that the "dual mandate goals" (balancing inflation and employment) have not made progress yet, suggesting that a shift in monetary policy is unlikely in the short term.

3. Geopolitical Conflicts: The India-Pakistan Tension Becomes a New Variable

Since early May, conflicts along the India-Pakistan border have escalated, with Pakistan claiming to have shot down 5 Indian fighter jets (a claim India denies). The regional tensions have increased the demand for safe-haven assets. Gold prices briefly surpassed $2500 per ounce, while Bitcoin also rose to around $97,000.

It is noteworthy that the market's reaction to geopolitical risks is showing divergence:

1. Traditional safe-haven assets: Gold and the Dollar Index (DXY) have received capital inflows in the short term;
2. Crypto Market: Bitcoin is viewed by some investors as "digital gold", but its safe-haven properties remain controversial. The current rise is more driven by institutional speculation and short squeeze.

Glassnode data shows that there is selling pressure resistance from long-term holders around $99,900. If it breaks through, it may open up space above $100,000.

Four, Technical Analysis: The Tug of War at Key Resistance Levels

1. Historical trend reappears

Famous analyst Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin's current price structure is very similar to the rebound height in mid-April 2024: after breaking through key resistance levels, it consolidated sideways, followed by a buildup with an increase of about 2%, ultimately starting a new round of rise. If this pattern is replicated, Bitcoin may challenge the $100,000 mark over the weekend.

2. Liquidity Accumulation and Breakthrough Signal

Currently, Bitcoin is forming a dense liquidity pool in the $98,000-$99,500 range, with both long and short positions reaching all-time highs. Technical indicators show that Bitcoin's simple moving averages (SMA) across all key time frames (20-day, 50-day, 200-day) are on an upward trend, supporting a bullish logic.

​​5. Institutional Trends: Corporate Additions and Strategic Reserve Plans​​

1. Corporate finance influx

Wall Street brokerage Bernstein predicts that global companies will add $330 billion to their Bitcoin holdings by 2029, of which MicroStrategy may contribute $124 billion. Publicly traded companies currently hold about 720,000 BTC (2.4% of the total supply), with the friendly attitude of the US regulatory environment being the main driver.

2. National Strategic Reserve Pilot

The United States recently announced the inclusion of Bitcoin in its strategic reserve plan (still in preparation), which further strengthens the status of Bitcoin as a "quasi-official asset." Although it has not yet been implemented, the market views it as a long-term positive.

6. Stablecoins: The "digital dollar" out of the circle and market demand

Stablecoins have demonstrated an out-of-the-box effect far exceeding previous cycles in this round.

• Cross-border payments: In the context of escalating conflicts between India and Pakistan, USDT and USDC have become safe-haven tools for some investors;
• On-chain activities: USDC is widely used for staking in DeFi protocols and exchange wealth management, pushing its market value to over 60 billion dollars;
• Gray area demand: Cross-border remittances and gray transactions continue to grow in regions like Southeast Asia.

The total market value of stablecoins has surpassed 245.6 billion USD, but its growth has not fully translated into prosperity for the altcoin market. This cycle's funds are more concentrated in Bitcoin and stablecoins, reflecting a preference for a more conservative market.

Seven, Risk Warning: Hidden Concerns in the Celebration

1. High volatility and leverage risk

In the past 24 hours, more than 100,000 people in the virtual currency market have been liquidated, with a liquidation amount reaching 400 million USD.

Technical resistance near 99,000 dollars and selling pressure from long-term holders may trigger a short-term pullback.

2. Regulatory and policy uncertainty

The European Central Bank has chosen COTI to develop the digital euro's privacy features, while countries are still negotiating their regulatory frameworks for Crypto Assets. If the U.S. Strategic Reserve Plan is delayed or regulations tighten, market sentiment may quickly reverse.

3. The risk of geopolitical variables diminishing

If the India-Pakistan conflict eases, a decrease in safe-haven demand may lead to a simultaneous decline in Bitcoin and gold.

Future Outlook: Is $100,000 a Starting Point or a Trap?

If Bitcoin successfully breaks through 100,000 US dollars, it may trigger the following chain reactions:

• FOMO sentiment explosion: Retail and institutional funds accelerate entry, pushing prices towards $120,000;
• Altcoin rebound: Funds are flowing from BTC to ETH, SOL, etc., driving the overall market capitalization rise;
• Regulatory tightening: Countries may implement stricter regulations on stablecoins and trading platforms.

On the contrary, if it fails to hold above 100,000 USD, the market may retrace to the support range of 92,800-90,000 USD, forming a new round of consolidation.