Bitcoin attracts renewed attention at the 100,000 Dollar level, with investment appeal approaching that of gold = Analyst

## Acceleration of capital inflow from gold to Bitcoin?

Since May 10, Bitcoin has once again surpassed $100,000, and amid adjustments in gold prices, signs of a shift in the flow of global investment capital are emerging. Julian Timmer, the Global Macro Director at Fidelity, pointed out on the 16th of last week that "there is a possibility that the baton (liquidity) is being passed again from gold to Bitcoin," and analyzed that the Sharpe ratios (risk-adjusted returns) of both assets are converging, making their attractiveness as investment targets nearly equivalent.

Source: Fidelity

According to data from River, many Americans currently hold more Bitcoin than gold.

Source: River

Analyst TechDev pointed out that "after gold rose parabolically, global liquidity has broken out and funds are flowing into Bitcoin." Expectations for US-China trade talks have spread risk appetite, and the already updated highs of gold are being capped.

On the other hand, according to the Ecoinometrics analysis on the 16th, until the first quarter of 2025, there will continue to be a "risk-off" environment due to uncertainties regarding the policies of the Federal Reserve (FRB), Trump's tariff policies, and the direction of the U.S. economy, leading to a concentration of funds in gold, which is considered a safe asset. The inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs remained less than a third of last year's amount, while gold ETFs were attracting capital.

Source: Ecoinometrics

In addition, Goldman Sachs maintained a bullish outlook on gold prices in its report on the 15th. It predicts that gold prices will rise to $3,700 by the end of 2025 (up from $3,294 as of May 21), and indicates that they could increase to $3,880 in the event of a recession. This is attributed to the long-term demand from central banks and the fact that ETF investors are increasing their holdings in light of expectations for interest rate cuts and concerns about a recession.

Source: Goldman Sachs

However, the market environment is changing, and Ecoinometrics analyzes that the U.S. trade policy is becoming clearer, and the FRB is also indicating a soft stance. Given that the tightened financial environment at the beginning of the year is showing signs of easing again, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs is expected to continue to strengthen. In the long term, it is seen as a factor supporting the rise in Bitcoin prices.

Moreover, the aforementioned Mr. Timmer argues that a 4:1 ratio of gold to Bitcoin makes sense in the allocation of value-storing assets. In this ratio, the volatility of gold becomes almost equivalent to that of Bitcoin, resulting in similar relative performance. As the current market environment shifts again in favor of risk assets, the shift of funds towards Bitcoin, which is a high-beta growth asset, may continue going forward.