A Web3 Entrepreneur's 2024 Review and 2025 Outlook

Thank you all for your support over the past year. As an ordinary Web3 entrepreneur still fighting on the front lines, I would like to share my insights for 2024 and my outlook for 2025. Overall, I believe it can be summarized in four sentences: from wilderness to universality, from chaos to order, from recession to bubble, from conservatism to reform. Next, I will share my thoughts and outlook through some representative events.

From Grassroots to Universality: BTC Spot ETF Approved, Opening the Path to Universal Adoption of Crypto Assets

Looking back at 2024, the most unusual transformation in the crypto world is the upgrade from a niche subculture product to an asset class with universal value. This journey can be traced back to two landmark events: first, on January 10, 2024, the approval of the BTC spot ETF; second, on November 6, 2024, the election of crypto-friendly Trump as the 47th President of the United States. These two events respectively drove the price of BTC from the $30,000 range up to $60,000, and then from $60,000 to $100,000.

The most direct impact of this transformation is on the liquidity of funds. More abundant liquidity is beneficial for the price increase of risk assets, but the process and motivation for capital inflows are different from those during the bull market of 2021. The 2021 bull market was primarily driven by the deregulated attributes of crypto assets, while the current bull market that began in 2024 is driven by new interest groups actively exerting political influence.

This transition from "wilderness" to "universal" profoundly affects the motivation for liquidity attraction. In addition to speculation, the current buying momentum for BTC also includes more factors such as "store of value" and "anti-inflation," which will reduce the cyclicality and volatility of crypto assets, leading to a more robust value support. Currently, this positive change is primarily reflected in a few blue-chip assets like BTC, but the entire crypto asset market will benefit.

For many practitioners, including myself, this evolution has also brought about a significant positive mindset shift. We can now introduce our profession or career to the outside world with more confidence, which will benefit aspects such as talent influx and finding partners.

Looking ahead to 2025, discussions about the value of crypto assets represented by BTC will be more positive. We need to pay attention to the following aspects:

• Progress of Bitcoin reserve-related legislation at the national, regional, organizational, and corporate levels.
• Relevant statements or viewpoints of key figures with political influence
• The allocation of BTC in the balance sheet of publicly listed companies in the United States

From Chaos to Order: The Global Crypto Regulatory Framework Improves, Providing Evidence for Web3 Business Scenarios to Break Boundaries

For a long time, a core narrative of the cryptocurrency industry has been the censorship resistance brought about by decentralization and anonymity. This provided value support for the early development of the industry, but also brought some negative effects. The future development of the industry will iterate in this direction, experiencing a transition from chaos to order from a pragmatic perspective.

In 2024, the turnover of SEC Chairman Gary Gensler has attracted much attention. During his tenure, the SEC sued numerous U.S. crypto companies, creating bottlenecks for the operations and expansion of these giants. With a new president taking office and Gensler's turnover, a more lenient, inclusive, and crypto-friendly regulatory framework is anticipated. Based on the recent judicial progress of cases like Ripple and Tornado Cash, the introduction of this framework is not far off.

This change will provide a basis for Web3 business scenarios to break boundaries without having to bear excessive potential legal risks. In 2025, we need to pay attention to the verdicts of related lawsuits, the proposal and advancement of bills, changes in SEC personnel appointments, and the statements and views of key decision-makers.

I am very interested in the following two aspects of potential breakout businesses:

1. Ce-DeFi Scenario: Connecting traditional financial instruments with on-chain tools to improve capital efficiency and reduce transaction friction costs.

2. The application of DAO in the management of off-chain实体业务: Exploring the possibilities of more off-chain traditional businesses using the DAO model for internal governance.

From Recession to Bubble: Three Major Directions for the Development of Traditional Web3 Businesses

In 2024, the hotspots of traditional Web3 businesses experienced significant changes. From the LRT market represented by EigenLayer in the first half of the year, to the application layer represented by TON Mini App in the second half, and finally to the popularity of Meme coins at the end of the year, the market gradually transitioned from a downturn to a bubble.

Looking ahead to 2025, I believe traditional Web3 businesses will develop according to the pattern of a bubble cycle:

1. A more innovative grand narrative: Capital chases high-growth tracks, and the enormous imaginative potential allows the valuation bubble to be further inflated.

2. More stable business revenue: Some sectors that have gone through iterations will return to a reasonable valuation range, and the pursuit of real income will become the main theme of industry iterations.

3. A more balanced interest game model: exploring new models to solve the game relationship issues between current project parties, primary market VCs, and secondary market investors.

From Conservatism to Transformation: Opportunities in Risk Assets Brought by Significant Uncertainty

The main theme of 2025 will be the significant changes in the economic and cultural fields triggered by political reforms, with the entire process filled with the uncertainties brought about by the collapse of the old order. These uncertainties will lead to immense volatility in the risk markets.

The recent news about the FTX restructuring plan coming into effect has prompted me to think. Some big players who entered the market during the last bull run may try to artificially inflate the prices of related assets during the window period before the new government takes office, in order to manage the risky assets they hold.

Inspired by the FTX case, I am also quite interested in the development of the NFT track in 2025. Combined with emerging speculative narratives like AI Agents, the NFT market is expected to experience a second spring.