Whether Ethereum (ETH) can break through its historical high has become a hot topic in the Crypto Assets market. Analysis indicates that there are three key factors that may drive the ETH price upward.

Firstly, the opening of the pension market brings great potential for ETH. Recent policies allow the inclusion of Crypto Assets in 401(k) pension plans, a move that could introduce a large amount of long-term stable capital. It is estimated that if only 1% of the pension funds (approximately $9 trillion market) flows into the crypto market, its scale will be 1.5 times that of the current total ETF amount. The characteristic of this capital is a long holding period, which may have a profound impact on the market.

Secondly, the possible interest rate cut policy by the Federal Reserve has injected new vitality into the ETH market. The latest unemployment benefits data is slightly higher than expected, which increases the likelihood of a rate cut in September. Currently, the market expects the probability of a rate cut in September to be as high as 88.9%. If the rate cut becomes a reality, it will provide a favorable macro environment for the Crypto Assets market.

Finally, from a technical perspective, a golden cross signal has appeared on the ETH monthly chart, which is typically regarded as the beginning of an upward trend. Comparing the market from the end of 2020 to 2021, as long as there is no obvious stagnation at the weekly level, a buy-the-dip strategy may yield considerable returns.

Considering these factors, the likelihood of ETH breaking through the $4000 barrier is increasing. However, investors should remain cautious, closely monitor market changes, and implement risk management.