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According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in September is 15.4%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 84.6%. The probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged in October is 6%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 42.4%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 51.5%.
What do you think?