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Recently, Trump has once again launched an attack on Fed Chairman Powell, claiming that his policies have "seriously harmed" the real estate industry. This action breaks the tradition of past U.S. presidents keeping their distance from Fed policies, highlighting Trump's strong tendency for intervention in monetary policy.
Trump stated on social media that the mortgage market is facing significant difficulties due to the Fed's failure to implement substantial interest rate cuts. He insisted that "there is no inflation" and called for immediate rate reductions. However, economic data shows that the core PCE inflation rate is expected to reach 3% in July, still above the Fed's 2% target, indicating that inflationary pressures remain.
In response to Trump's criticism, Powell remained silent and continued to maintain the interest rate range of 4.25%-4.50%. The Fed's decisions seem to be based more on economic data than on political pressure.
Trump's public criticism not only challenges the independence of the Fed but may also increase uncertainty in the market. While the real estate market is indeed under the dual pressure of high interest rates and high housing prices, it is worth noting that mortgage rates are more influenced by the yield on the 10-year Treasury bonds rather than being directly controlled by the Fed.
Despite Trump's remarks appealing to some homebuyers' sentiments, he seems to overlook the inflation risks that could arise from interest rate cuts and their long-term negative impact on the economy. The Fed, when formulating policy, needs to weigh multiple factors such as employment and inflation, rather than succumbing to short-term political pressure.
Experts point out that in the current economic environment, the Fed faces a difficult balancing act. On one hand, it needs to control inflation, while on the other hand, it must avoid excessive tightening that could lead to an economic recession. This requires careful and precise policy adjustments, rather than simple interest rate cuts.
As the economic situation continues to change, the direction of the Fed's policy will remain a focus of close attention from all parties. In any case, maintaining the independence of the central bank and the objectivity of its decisions is crucial for ensuring the long-term healthy development of the economy.