Key points to watch for Powell's speech tonight: Will it signal a shift in policy, and is the market anticipating clear signals for interest rate cuts?

On August 22, Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the annual Central Bank meeting hosted by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole at 10 PM Beijing time. The expected main points of the speech are as follows: Interest rate cut path: Whether Powell will confirm the expectation of a rate cut next month will be the focus of this speech. Currently, most institutions expect Powell to take a neutral stance, not to give clear signals, and to continue to emphasize a data-dependent decision-making approach, but the market still harbors concerns over his refutation of the September rate cut expectations; Policy framework review: The Fed's policy framework review has become one of the focal points of Powell's speech. Several large investment banks expect Powell may downplay the flexible average inflation target introduced in 2020 (FAIT), returning to a more traditional policy statement emphasizing a more balanced consideration of employment and inflation targets; Inflation concerns: Powell may acknowledge that the CPI has eased somewhat, but remains above target, and respond to questions related to the surge in PPI. He will continue to indicate the need to be vigilant about the stickiness of service sector inflation and the potential pressures from tariffs, emphasizing the importance of stable inflation expectations; Labor market: Powell may respond to the cooling of US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) and the significant downward revisions, and may acknowledge the cooling labor market and the decline in new job potential, but may downplay the impact of single labor data, emphasizing the need for comprehensive judgment based on multiple indicators; Political pressure: Powell will likely avoid discussing the political pressure he faces during his speech, stating that he will focus on doing his job well. Trump has repeatedly publicly criticized Powell, and government officials have continuously pressured the Fed, recently demanding the immediate dismissal of Fed Governor Cook. (Jin10)